Looking ahead: 2024 will see generative AI mature

With 2023 being the year for generative AI, 2024 will be the year the technology grows and develops.

Many industry experts think that instead of the hype slowing, it will blossom.

"In 2024, there will not be a trough of disillusionment with this tech, ever," said Mike Leone, an analyst at TechTarget's Enterprise Strategy Group, on the Targeting AI podcast from TechTarget Editorial. "We're jumping from hype to seeing productivity enhancements and improvements."

However, the year will likely bring about many more AI models with both mature and immature enterprise capabilities. Enterprises may also see cost and regulation policies that could affect enterprise adoption of generative AI, Leone added.

One development in the new year is a move away from large language models towards smaller models, said Usama Fayyad, executive director of The Institute for Experiential AI at Northeastern University.

"[There will be] a realization that bigger is not necessarily better all the time," Fayyad said. "Having more parameters makes a model less portable, less maintainable, often unstable, requires a lot more data and a lot more guidance."

Alternatively, smaller models are cheaper to train, maintain and revise, Fayyad added.

Regulation will also continue to develop in 2024, said Ricardo Baeza-Yates, director of research at The Institute for Experiential AI.

While the EU is already introducing AI policies, countries like China are expected to join in next year, Baeza-Yates said.

There will also be a push toward "grey models" instead of black box models, he added. Black box models are models that are unexplainable, while with grey models, there's a level of understanding of how the models work.

Esther Ajao is a TechTarget Editorial news writer covering artificial intelligence software and systems. Shaun Sutner is a senior news director for TechTarget Editorial's enterprise AI, business analytics, data management, customer experience and unified communications coverage areas. Together, they host the Targeting AI podcast series.